Sargassum Report
Week of October 19, 2026 · See this week's report
Turks & Caicos and Bahamas hold very low seaweed as east Caribbean stays heavy
Head for Turks & Caicos, The Bahamas and Leeward Islands for very low seaweed this week. Avoid Riviera Maya, Punta Cana & East Coast and Holguin Coast with 100% heavy beaches.
Four Seasons Resort Nevis in Leeward Islands has very low seaweed, with Leeward Islands steady and near typical for October. Turks & Caicos and The Bahamas also hold very low seaweed with 0% heavy beaches and steady conditions through the next 7 days.
Avoid Riviera Maya and Punta Cana & East Coast, both with very high seaweed and 100% heavy beaches and steady conditions for the next 7 days. Holguin Coast also holds very high seaweed with 100% heavy beaches, while Santo Domingo & South Coast is very high and rising and above typical for October.
Dominican North Coast & Samana eased from very high to high since Oct 12, now with 77% heavy beaches and steady conditions. For the season ahead, November and December are typically heaviest in Santo Domingo & South Coast and January is typically heaviest in Barbados, so travelers heading there may favor very low areas like Turks & Caicos.
Tables from Veabird's forecast data. Text written by AI (Muse Spark) from those numbers and checked against them before publishing.
Seaweed by destination
Median sargassum level across each destination's beaches today, the share with heavy seaweed, where it is heading over the next 7 days, and how today compares with a typical year for this month.
| Destination | Today | Heavy beaches | Next 7 days | vs typical October | vs last week | Weekly trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holguín Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | – | Same | |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | 100% | Rising | Above typical | Same | |
| Riviera Maya | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | 100% | Easing | – | Same | |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Heavier | |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | High | 77% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | High | 67% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | High | 58% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Jamaica | Moderate | 45% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Belize | Moderate | 28% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Puerto Rico | Low | 13% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Florida Panhandle | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Barbados | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Low | 13% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Upper Texas Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Leeward Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| The Bahamas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Louisiana Coast | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Florida Keys | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same |
Clearest beaches this week
The lowest seaweed over the next 7 days among beaches where sargassum is a real question in a typical year (at most two per destination).
| Beach | Destination | Seaweed, 7-day average | Today | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four Seasons Resort Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Paradise Beach Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Radisson Aquatica Resort | Barbados | Low | Low | A- |
| Port St. Charles Marina | Barbados | Low | Low | B+ |
| Hideways Resort | The Bahamas | Low | Low | B |
| Wild Island Resorts | The Bahamas | Low | Low | B |
| Punta Rucia Lodge | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | C+ |
| Hotel Sand Bay Oceanfront | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | C+ |
| Belmont Villa | Jamaica | Low | Low | B+ |
| Jamaica Palace | Jamaica | Moderate | Moderate | B+ |
| Hotel Santa Isabel | Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Moderate | Moderate | B- |
| W Retreat & Spa Vieques | Puerto Rico | Moderate | Moderate | A- |
Heaviest seaweed today
Beaches with the most sargassum in the forecast today (at most two per destination). Many resorts rake at dawn; their page shows the beach after the usual cleanup.
| Beach | Destination | Today | Next 7 days | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradisus Playa del Carmen | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D |
| Playa del Carmen Resorts | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D |
| Hotel El Arsenita | Holguín Coast | Very high | Easing | D |
| MGM Gran Muthu Ensenada Hotel | Holguín Coast | Very high | Easing | D |
| Bahia Principe Grand Samaná | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D |
| Luxury Bahia Principe Samana | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D |
| Barceló Bávaro Palace | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Paradisus Palma Real | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Boca Chica Beach | Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Hispañiola Hotel & Casino | Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | Steady | D+ |
The season ahead
Typical seaweed for the next three months at each destination, from the seasonal pattern of the Atlantic sargassum belt and each beach's exposure. Any given year can differ a lot.
| Destination | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Barbados | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Belize | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Keys | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Panhandle | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Guatemala Caribbean | |||
| Holguín Coast | |||
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Jamaica | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Louisiana Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Puerto Rico | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Riviera Maya | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Upper Texas Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
How good is the model?
Veabird's sargassum model is trained on satellite detections (USF Optical Oceanography Lab via NOAA AOML,2016–2024), winds and currents, and tested on later years it never saw (2025, 2026).
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination (AUC) | 0.78 | How often a stretch of coast where satellites then saw notable seaweed offshore was ranked above one where they didn't (0.5 = coin flip, 1 = perfect). Scored against satellite detections, not beach reports. |
| Skill vs climatology | 10% | Improvement in probability accuracy over just using the typical season. |
| Test examples | 15,668 | Beach-weeks in the held-out test years. |
| Last trained | Oct 19 | The model retrains as new satellite data arrives. |
About this report
This week's sargassum (seaweed) forecast beach by beach: where it is heavy, where it is clear, the trend and the season ahead, from Veabird's satellite-trained model. It comes out every Monday and covers the Mexican Caribbean, the Caribbean islands, Central America's Caribbean coast, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Grades run from A+ (best) to F; they weigh the things that make or break a trip, not just the weather.
Sources: Satellite sargassum data: USF Optical Oceanography Lab (Sargassum Watch System) via NOAA AOML; Veabird sargassum model (winds, currents, satellite history); Open-Meteo winds. Forecasts are estimates, not safety guidance.
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