Sargassum Report
Week of September 28, 2026 · Updated
Turks & Caicos stays very low while Riviera Maya stays very high
Go to The Bahamas, Cuba's Cays and Turks & Caicos for very low seaweed this week. Avoid Riviera Maya, Punta Cana & East Coast and Holguín Coast with very high seaweed.
Right now
Updated Oct 3, 18:00 UTC, every few hours- Grace Bay ClubSatA-SunA-MonA-TueA-WedA
Go Wednesday for A conditions, calm water, 86°F water and low rip current risk.
- Cocodimama Charming ResortSatA-SunA-MonA-TueAWedA-
Tuesday grades A with little seaweed, calm water and 86F water.
- The Cove EleutheraSatA-SunA-MonA-TueAWedA
Tuesday grades A with very low seaweed, 1.4 ft waves and 86°F water.
- Meliá BuenavistaSatA-SunA-MonATueA-WedA
Go Wednesday for an A with 0.3 ft waves and 86°F water and quiet crowds.
- Iberostar Origin Playa PilarSatA-SunA-MonA-TueA-WedA
Wednesday is the day: A with little seaweed, calm water and 86°F water.
- Pier House Resort & SpaSatA-SunA-MonATueA-WedA-
Monday is the day to go: grade A, 86°F water and only a 7% chance of rain.
- Grand Turk Beach ResortsSatC+SunBMonB+TueA-WedA-
Wait for Wednesday at A- with very low seaweed after a wet 75% Saturday.
- Lighthouse Bay ResortSatA-SunA-MonA-TueA-WedA-
Saturday is your day: A-, very low seaweed, 85°F water and quiet on the west side.
- Paradisus Palma RealSatFSunDMonDTueD+WedD+
Hold off on Bávaro this week; Majestic Colonial Hotel, 2 mi away, grades B on Wednesday.
- Meliá Caribe Beach ResortSatFSunDMonDTueD+WedD+
Skip this stretch, Tuesday only reaches D+; Majestic Colonial Hotel, 3 mi away, grades B on Wednesday.
- Hotel El ArsenitaSatFSunFMonDTueDWedD
Skip here with Very high seaweed all week; Villa Armando Mestre, 8 mi away, grades C on Tuesday.
- Secrets Maroma Beach Riviera CancúnSatFSunD-MonD-TueDWedF
Skip Punta Maroma for now, Secrets Aura Cozumel 14 mi away grades B on Monday.
- MGM Gran Muthu Ensenada HotelSatFSunFMonD-TueDWedD
Skip this northeast beach. Villa Armando Mestre, 7 mi away, grades C Tuesday.
- Maroma, A Belmond HotelSatFSunD-MonD-TueD-WedF
Beach week is off with very high seaweed, Islands Beach Club 13 mi away grades B on Monday.
Grades from Veabird's beach forecast; each line written by AI (Muse Spark) and checked against the forecast. Higher is better: A+ to F.
The Bahamas, Cuba's Cays and Turks & Caicos are very low with 0% heavy today Saturday Oct 3 and steady over the next 7 days, near typical for October. For the week of Sep 28, 2026, they include the clearest exposed beaches among 985 beaches tracked.
Avoid Riviera Maya, Punta Cana & East Coast and Holguín Coast, all very high and steady and above typical, with 100% heavy except Holguín Coast at 94% heavy. They are part of 420 of 985 beaches with high or very high seaweed today Saturday Oct 3.
Conditions are steady over the next 7 days across tracked destinations. The typical season ahead is heaviest in Costa Maya & Bacalar in November and in Punta Cana & East Coast in December and January, so plan October travel around very low destinations.
Tables from Veabird's forecast data. Text written by AI (Muse Spark) from those numbers and checked against them before publishing.
Seaweed by destination
Median sargassum level across each destination's beaches today, the share with heavy seaweed, where it is heading over the next 7 days, and how today compares with a typical year for this month.
| Destination | Today | Heavy beaches | Next 7 days | vs typical October | vs last week | Weekly trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riviera Maya | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Holguín Coast | Very high | 94% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | 70% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | 71% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | High | 60% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Jamaica | High | 84% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | High | 65% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Belize | Moderate | 36% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Florida Panhandle | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | – | – |
| Puerto Rico | Low | 18% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Barbados | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Low | 31% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Florida Keys | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Low | 8% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Upper Texas Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Louisiana Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Leeward Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| The Bahamas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | – | – |
Clearest beaches this week
The lowest seaweed over the next 7 days among beaches where sargassum is a real question in a typical year (at most two per destination).
| Beach | Destination | Seaweed, 7-day average | Today | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocodimama Charming Resort | The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Iberostar Origin Playa Pilar | Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | A- |
| The Cove Eleuthera | The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Grand Turk Beach Resorts | Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | B+ |
| Meliá Buenavista | Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Grace Bay Club | Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Lighthouse Bay Resort | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Pier House Resort & Spa | Florida Keys | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Marina Bay | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Casa Morada | Florida Keys | Very low | Very low | A- |
| The Westin St. John Resort | U.S. Virgin Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Gulf Shores Beach Resorts | Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | Very low | B |
Heaviest seaweed today
Beaches with the most sargassum in the forecast today (at most two per destination). Many resorts rake at dawn; their page shows the beach after the usual cleanup.
| Beach | Destination | Today | Next 7 days | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secrets Maroma Beach Riviera Cancún | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | F |
| Maroma, A Belmond Hotel | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | F |
| Paradisus Palma Real | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Meliá Caribe Beach Resort | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| MGM Gran Muthu Ensenada Hotel | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | F |
| Hotel El Arsenita | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Villa Castellamonte | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Villa Flor de Cabrera | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Indura Beach & Golf Resort | Honduras & Bay Islands | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Villa Escondida | Honduras & Bay Islands | Very high | Steady | D- |
The season ahead
Typical seaweed for the next three months at each destination, from the seasonal pattern of the Atlantic sargassum belt and each beach's exposure. Any given year can differ a lot.
| Destination | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Barbados | Low | Low | Low |
| Belize | Low | Very low | Very low |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | Low | Low | Low |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | Low | Low | Low |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | Low |
| Florida Keys | Low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Panhandle | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Guatemala Caribbean | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Holguín Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Jamaica | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Louisiana Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Puerto Rico | Low | Low | Low |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Low | Low | Low |
| Riviera Maya | Low | Low | Low |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Low | Very low | Very low |
| The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Low | Very low | Very low |
| Upper Texas Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
How good is the model?
Veabird's sargassum model is trained on NOAA AOML satellite detections (2016–2024), winds and currents, and tested on later years it never saw (2025, 2026).
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination (AUC) | 0.79 | How often a beach that got heavy seaweed was ranked above one that didn't (0.5 = coin flip, 1 = perfect). |
| Skill vs climatology | 9% | Improvement in probability accuracy over just using the typical season. |
| Test examples | 13,325 | Beach-weeks in the held-out test years. |
| Last trained | Oct 3 | The model retrains as new satellite data arrives. |
About this report
This week's sargassum (seaweed) forecast beach by beach: where it is heavy, where it is clear, the trend and the season ahead, from Veabird's satellite-trained model. It comes out every Monday and covers the Mexican Caribbean, the Caribbean islands, Central America's Caribbean coast, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Grades run from A+ (best) to F; they weigh the things that make or break a trip, not just the weather.
Sources: NOAA AOML Atlantic sargassum satellite data (AFAI); Veabird sargassum model (winds, currents, satellite history); Open-Meteo winds. Forecasts are estimates, not safety guidance.
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