Sargassum Report
Week of October 5, 2026 · See this week's report
Leeward Islands hold very low seaweed while Riviera Maya stays very high
Head to Leeward Islands, The Bahamas and Barbados for the clearest water this week. Avoid Riviera Maya, Punta Cana & East Coast and Santo Domingo & South Coast with very high seaweed.
The clearest choices this week are Leeward Islands with very low seaweed, steady over the next 7 days and near typical for October. The Bahamas, Turks & Caicos and Barbados are also among the clearest, all steady over the next 7 days. Today is Monday Oct 5 and 458 of 1146 beaches are heavy.
Avoid Riviera Maya, Punta Cana & East Coast and Santo Domingo & South Coast, each with very high seaweed and 100% heavy beaches, steady over the next 7 days and above typical. Jamaica is also heavy with high seaweed and 69% heavy beaches, steady and above typical. Changes since Sep 28 show Costa Maya & Bacalar at high to high and Jamaica at high to high.
The trend is steady across most destinations over the next 7 days, except Guatemala Caribbean which is easing from very high seaweed. For the season ahead, November is typically heaviest in Riviera Maya, December is typically heaviest in Riviera Maya, and January is typically heaviest in Barbados. Plan beach days in very low areas and check local beach conditions before swimming in heavy regions.
Tables from Veabird's forecast data. Text written by AI (Muse Spark) from those numbers and checked against them before publishing.
Seaweed by destination
Median sargassum level across each destination's beaches today, the share with heavy seaweed, where it is heading over the next 7 days, and how today compares with a typical year for this month.
| Destination | Today | Heavy beaches | Next 7 days | vs typical October | vs last week | Weekly trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riviera Maya | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Holguín Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | – | Same | |
| Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | 100% | Easing | – | Heavier | |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Heavier | |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | High | 79% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | High | 67% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | High | 64% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Jamaica | High | 69% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Belize | Low | 29% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Low | 6% | Steady | Above typical | Heavier | |
| Puerto Rico | Low | 17% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Barbados | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Florida Panhandle | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Low | 15% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Florida Keys | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Upper Texas Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Louisiana Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Leeward Islands | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| The Bahamas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same |
Clearest beaches this week
The lowest seaweed over the next 7 days among beaches where sargassum is a real question in a typical year (at most two per destination).
| Beach | Destination | Seaweed, 7-day average | Today | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four Seasons Resort Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Paradise Beach Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Wild Island Resorts | The Bahamas | Low | Low | A- |
| The Abaco Club on Winding Bay | The Bahamas | Low | Low | B+ |
| Barbados Hilton | Barbados | Low | Low | B |
| Hilton Barbados Resort | Barbados | Low | Low | B |
| Punta Rucia Lodge | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | B- |
| Hotel Sand Bay Oceanfront | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | B- |
| Impression Isla Mujeres | Cancún & Isla Mujeres | Low | Low | C+ |
| The Buccaneer | U.S. Virgin Islands | Moderate | Moderate | B |
| Playas del Este (Santa María del Mar) | Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Moderate | Moderate | B |
| Belmont Villa | Jamaica | Moderate | Moderate | B- |
Heaviest seaweed today
Beaches with the most sargassum in the forecast today (at most two per destination). Many resorts rake at dawn; their page shows the beach after the usual cleanup.
| Beach | Destination | Today | Next 7 days | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secrets Maroma Beach Riviera Cancún | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Maroma, A Belmond Hotel | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Hotel El Arsenita | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | F |
| MGM Gran Muthu Ensenada Hotel | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Beya Suites | Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Livingston Resort Hotel | Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | Easing | F |
| Barceló Bávaro Palace | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Paradisus Palma Real | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Aparta Hotel Caribe Paraíso | Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Bahia Principe Grand Samaná | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D+ |
The season ahead
Typical seaweed for the next three months at each destination, from the seasonal pattern of the Atlantic sargassum belt and each beach's exposure. Any given year can differ a lot.
| Destination | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Barbados | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Belize | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Keys | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Panhandle | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Guatemala Caribbean | |||
| Holguín Coast | |||
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Jamaica | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Louisiana Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Puerto Rico | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Riviera Maya | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Upper Texas Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
How good is the model?
Veabird's sargassum model is trained on satellite detections (USF Optical Oceanography Lab via NOAA AOML,2016–2024), winds and currents, and tested on later years it never saw (2025, 2026).
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination (AUC) | 0.78 | How often a stretch of coast where satellites then saw notable seaweed offshore was ranked above one where they didn't (0.5 = coin flip, 1 = perfect). Scored against satellite detections, not beach reports. |
| Skill vs climatology | 10% | Improvement in probability accuracy over just using the typical season. |
| Test examples | 14,977 | Beach-weeks in the held-out test years. |
| Last trained | Oct 5 | The model retrains as new satellite data arrives. |
About this report
This week's sargassum (seaweed) forecast beach by beach: where it is heavy, where it is clear, the trend and the season ahead, from Veabird's satellite-trained model. It comes out every Monday and covers the Mexican Caribbean, the Caribbean islands, Central America's Caribbean coast, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Grades run from A+ (best) to F; they weigh the things that make or break a trip, not just the weather.
Sources: Satellite sargassum data: USF Optical Oceanography Lab (Sargassum Watch System) via NOAA AOML; Veabird sargassum model (winds, currents, satellite history); Open-Meteo winds. Forecasts are estimates, not safety guidance.
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