Sargassum Report
Week of October 12, 2026 · See this week's report
Riviera Maya holds very high seaweed, Leeward Islands stay clear
Head to the Leeward Islands and Barbados for low to very low seaweed. Avoid the Riviera Maya and Punta Cana & East Coast with very high levels.
Four Seasons Resort Nevis and Paradise Beach Nevis have very low seaweed and are steady through the next 7 days. The Leeward Islands and Barbados also stay at low median levels with 0% heavy beaches.
Avoid the Riviera Maya and Punta Cana & East Coast, both at very high median levels with 100% heavy beaches. Santo Domingo & South Coast and Cancún & Isla Mujeres are also heavy at very high to high levels. All are steady through the next 7 days and above typical for October.
450 of 1146 beaches are heavy today, with levels steady for the next 7 days. The typical trend keeps November and December heaviest in Riviera Maya and January heaviest in Barbados. Travelers seeking clearer water can look to Florida Keys and The Bahamas.
Tables from Veabird's forecast data. Text written by AI (Muse Spark) from those numbers and checked against them before publishing.
Seaweed by destination
Median sargassum level across each destination's beaches today, the share with heavy seaweed, where it is heading over the next 7 days, and how today compares with a typical year for this month.
| Destination | Today | Heavy beaches | Next 7 days | vs typical October | vs last week | Weekly trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riviera Maya | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Holguín Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | – | Same | |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | 100% | Steady | – | Lighter | |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | 100% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | 82% | Steady | Above typical | Heavier | |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | High | 68% | Steady | Above typical | Heavier | |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | High | 58% | Steady | Above typical | Lighter | |
| Jamaica | High | 64% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Belize | Low | 29% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Puerto Rico | Low | 11% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Florida Panhandle | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Upper Texas Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Barbados | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Low | 15% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Louisiana Coast | Low | 0% | Steady | Above typical | Same | |
| Leeward Islands | Low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Florida Keys | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| The Bahamas | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same | |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | 0% | Steady | Near typical | Same |
Clearest beaches this week
The lowest seaweed over the next 7 days among beaches where sargassum is a real question in a typical year (at most two per destination).
| Beach | Destination | Seaweed, 7-day average | Today | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four Seasons Resort Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Paradise Beach Nevis | Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | A- |
| Radisson Aquatica Resort | Barbados | Very low | Low | A- |
| Wild Island Resorts | The Bahamas | Low | Low | B+ |
| Hideways Resort | The Bahamas | Low | Low | B+ |
| Barbados Hilton | Barbados | Low | Low | A- |
| Punta Rucia Lodge | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | B- |
| Hotel Sand Bay Oceanfront | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Low | Low | B- |
| Belmont Villa | Jamaica | Low | Low | B- |
| Jamaica Palace | Jamaica | Moderate | Moderate | B- |
| The Buccaneer | U.S. Virgin Islands | Moderate | Moderate | B+ |
| Hotel Santa Isabel | Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Moderate | Moderate | C+ |
Heaviest seaweed today
Beaches with the most sargassum in the forecast today (at most two per destination). Many resorts rake at dawn; their page shows the beach after the usual cleanup.
| Beach | Destination | Today | Next 7 days | Beach grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secrets Maroma Beach Riviera Cancún | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Maroma, A Belmond Hotel | Riviera Maya | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Hotel El Arsenita | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| MGM Gran Muthu Ensenada Hotel | Holguín Coast | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Club Med Punta Cana | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
| Barceló Bávaro Palace | Punta Cana & East Coast | Very high | Steady | D+ |
| Livingston Beach Resorts | Guatemala Caribbean | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Villa Castellamonte | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Villa Flor de Cabrera | Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very high | Steady | D- |
| Playa Esmeralda Beach Resort | Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very high | Steady | D |
The season ahead
Typical seaweed for the next three months at each destination, from the seasonal pattern of the Atlantic sargassum belt and each beach's exposure. Any given year can differ a lot.
| Destination | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama & Mississippi Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Barbados | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Belize | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cancún & Isla Mujeres | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Coastal Bend & South Texas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Costa Maya & Bacalar | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba: Varadero & Havana | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Cuba's Cays | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Dominican North Coast & Samaná | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Keys | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Florida Panhandle | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Guatemala Caribbean | |||
| Holguín Coast | |||
| Honduras & Bay Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Jamaica | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Leeward Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Louisiana Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Puerto Rico | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Punta Cana & East Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Riviera Maya | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Santo Domingo & South Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| The Bahamas | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Turks & Caicos | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Upper Texas Coast | Very low | Very low | Very low |
How good is the model?
Veabird's sargassum model is trained on satellite detections (USF Optical Oceanography Lab via NOAA AOML,2016–2024), winds and currents, and tested on later years it never saw (2025, 2026).
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Discrimination (AUC) | 0.78 | How often a stretch of coast where satellites then saw notable seaweed offshore was ranked above one where they didn't (0.5 = coin flip, 1 = perfect). Scored against satellite detections, not beach reports. |
| Skill vs climatology | 10% | Improvement in probability accuracy over just using the typical season. |
| Test examples | 15,668 | Beach-weeks in the held-out test years. |
| Last trained | Oct 12 | The model retrains as new satellite data arrives. |
About this report
This week's sargassum (seaweed) forecast beach by beach: where it is heavy, where it is clear, the trend and the season ahead, from Veabird's satellite-trained model. It comes out every Monday and covers the Mexican Caribbean, the Caribbean islands, Central America's Caribbean coast, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Grades run from A+ (best) to F; they weigh the things that make or break a trip, not just the weather.
Sources: Satellite sargassum data: USF Optical Oceanography Lab (Sargassum Watch System) via NOAA AOML; Veabird sargassum model (winds, currents, satellite history); Open-Meteo winds. Forecasts are estimates, not safety guidance.
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